I'd rather take a risk with a guy the head coach is familiar with.

The conventional wisdom according to the South Florida media seems to be that the Miami Dolphins will be “doubling down” at quarterback, signing Peyton Manning after his inevitable parting from the Colts and then drafting a young QB high (Tannehill?) to lock up the position for the foreseeable future.

I agree with the concept, but not the proposed puzzle pieces.

Manning is 36.  He’s also coming off a neck injury that may affect his arm strength from here on out.  Optimistically, the nerve might regenerate at the rate of about an inch per month, if you trust your handy-dandy online medical information:

http://nerve.wustl.edu/NerveInjury.pdf

But just because the nerve regenerates and he is able to throw doesn’t mean he’ll be making the same throws he made in his younger days and prior to multiple neck surgeries.  Optimistically, you get one or two more good years at best out of Manning before his skills decline anyway due to age, and that’s the best case scenario.  The worst case scenario is Dan Marino in 1999, leading the league in pick sixes trying to make the same throws he made five years earlier.

If we’re going to take a risk, I’d rather take it with a guy who has already been working with our head coach for four years, not a guy playing in a West Coast system for the first time.  A guy who’s 26, not 36.  A guy who has had talented passers in front of him for years but has looked really impressive every time he’s had the chance to play.  Of course, I’m talking about free agent Matt Flynn of the Packers.

The similarities between Matt Flynn, 2012 and Matt Hasselbeck, 2001 are startling.  Both four year veterans taken late in the draft as afterthoughts (Flynn, 7th round in 2008; Hasselbeck, 6th round in 1998).  Both played behind a future Hall of Famer and Super Bowl winner in Green Bay for four years while developing.  Both beat out higher draft picks to win the backup job in Green Bay (who remembers Brian Brohm was the Packers’ second round pick in 2008, one pick ahead of Chad Henne?).

And, if Philbin pounds the table for Flynn and the Dolphins win the bidding, you can add one more parallel: he’d be playing for the coach who developed him, as Holmgren was the coach when Hasselbeck was drafted.  It’s the difference between the Matts and other high profile backups who struggled in new surroundings.  So what if he’s a “system quarterback” if he’s going to be playing in that system?

Hasselbeck’s career in Seattle didn’t really get moving until halfway through his second season, but once he got it going, five consecutive playoff appearances (six total) followed, including a Super Bowl.  He was 36 before he moved on (to start in Tennessee) but Seattle got the quarterback position solved for nearly a full decade, with a five year window of Super Bowl contention included.  In the NFL of 2011, all you can ask for is an invitation to the dance, as the sixth-seeded Giants have proven not once but twice in five years now.

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