Dolphins vs Colts: pre-game match up

Published November 2, 2012 | By Michael Miller

Special Teams don’t show up in the stat lines, but ST Coach Darren Rizzi has helped make his unit strong contributors to the Dolphin’s success in 2012. Photo via MiamiDolphins.com

At 1 PM this Sunday November 4th, the surprising 4-3 Dolphins play the surprising 4-3 Colts. All the real Dolfans should already know the major story lines so I’m not going to repeat them here. Instead I’m going to take a look at some of the stats to see if we can predict how this important game might unfold.

Significant Defensive stats:

Total yards are pretty similar, but Miami is surrendering a lot more by the air: 281 vs 213 per game. The offset of course is rushing, where the Phins are only allowing 82 vs 137.4 per game. I think this benefits both offenses: Miami will look to run the ball more and Indy will put the game in Luck’s hands.
Scoring defense: big advantage Miami 18 points/game vs 24 points/game.
3rd down defense: big advantage Miami 26.4% converted vs 40.4% converted.
Sacks: advantage Miami 22 vs 15.
Passesdefended:advantage Miami 51 vs 32
Interceptions: advantage Miami 8 vs 2
Forced fumbles: advantage Miami 7 vs 2

Defensively that’s a collectivebigadvantageforMiami.Significant Offensive stats:

Passing: Miami and Indy are fairly close in most categories (time of possession, 3rd down conversions, rushing, etc), with the Colts enjoying an advantage in passing yards 269.5 yards/game vs 212. This however hasn’t translated into points, with Miami scoring 2 pts more per game.
Big plays: The Colts have enjoyed 28 pass completions of 20+ yards, while Miami has 22.
QBR: Miami’s QBR is surprisingly better than Indy’s: 77.5 vs 74.6.
Pass TDs: Colts have thrown 8 TDs while Miami has a league worst 5. Equalizing this to a degree is that Miami has only thrown 5 INTs to Indy’s 8.
Rush TDs: Miami has rushed for 10 TDs while Indy only has 5.
Sacks: Miami has only surrendered 14 sacks to Indy’s 18.
QB hits: Miami has only surrendered 31 QB hits to Indy’s 47.

While Indy throws for more yards and has more big pass plays, this doesn’t translate into significantly greater time of possession and certainly not scoring. At the same time, Indy’s OL doesn’t seem to to a good job with protecting Luck. Coupled with Miami’s defense making big plays, there should be opportunities for Miami to rattle Luck and force turnovers.

While statistics don’t tell the whole story, there is enough data to support why the Dolphins are favored to win this game on the road.

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