- Mike Tannenbaum hired... ...as Dolphins' executive VP of football operations
- Philbin retained Coach Philbin was given a contract extension
- Fins season ends on low note Jets down the Fins to end their season 8-8
- CB Will Davis out for season Miami placed CB Will Davis on the IR, ending his season
Miami Dolphins – Play-Maker Analysis – WRs
All it takes is one buzz word from an NFL GM to set the entire tone of an off-season. Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland did just that a couple weeks ago. In an interview at the Senior Bowl:
|“We’re looking for play-makers on offense. Look, we had two guys with over 60 catches but we’ve got to find guys that are scoring touchdowns,” Ireland said, via the Palm Beach Post. “This is the year that you got to do something. We’re in a very good position to utilize some of our cap space to bring in some veteran players on our football team, and we’re in a very good position to bring in some young players from a draft standpoint.”|
Ireland further defined what he was looking for in this off-season in an interview with the Joe Rose Show:
|“Guys that disrupt the passer. Guys that disrupt the timing of a receiver in the route… Guys that catch interceptions. Guys that knock down balls. Guys that score touchdowns. Guys that can pick up chunk yardage. Guys that can run after catch. Guys that can create big plays ontheir ability alone.”|
|Player (2012 Stats)
Full Pre-Combine Scouting of WRs: http://finnation.com/pre-combine-scouting-wide-receivers/
Miami needs to be careful that the “Play-maker” tunnel vision doesn’t impair them from extracting the most value from their draft board in April. A lot of success in the NFL Draft comes from correctly assessing the depth of talent at each position and projecting where the “starter caliber” threshold will be for each position of need. For instance, if the depth at receiver is promising to be great and experts project that there are ten (10) receivers that have starting caliber potential. And among those ten (10) prospects the talent levels are indiscernible, would it not be prudent to target a position of need where the depth of talent is thin? This logic will surely split the fan base and there will be debates on either side.
In the last 10 years the average number of wide-receivers that have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft has been four (4), with the maximum of seven (7) wide-receivers being selected in 2004. If we project that there are ten (10) receivers who have starting caliber potential in the 2013 NFL Draft, surely some of those wide-receivers will slide into the early 2nd round right?
Let’s examine this from a league-wide team need perspective. Just how many teams are likely to draft wide-receiver before the Dolphins select at pick #42?
|#||Team||Probability of WR||Teams Early Round Needs|
|1||KAN||UNLIKELY||Dwayne Bowe UFA – WR is unlikely at #1|
|2||JAC||NONE||Pass Rusher and Cornerback|
|3||OAK||NONE||Many holes on Defense|
|4||PHI||NONE||D-Line, O-Line and Cornerback|
|5||DET||NONE||Pass Rusher and Cornerback|
|6||CLE||UNLIKELY||Pass Rusher, WR is possible but unlikely|
|7||ARZ||NONE||O-Line and QB needed|
|8||BUF||POSSIBLE||QB needed – WR is possible if QB is not found|
|9||NYJ||NONE||Pass Rusher, O-Line, HB and QB|
|10||TEN||NONE||O-Line and Secondary|
|11||SD||NONE||O-Line and Cornerback|
|12||MIA||PRESSING NEED||WR, OT, CB, DE, FS|
|14||CAR||NONE||D-Line and Secondary|
|15||NO||NONE||Pass Rusher, Secondary and O-Line|
|16||STL||POSSIBLE||O-Line, Safety, WR is unlikely – Claimed Titus Young|
|17||PIT||PRESSING NEED||Mike Wallace UFA – WR is pressing need|
|18||DAL||NONE||O-Line and D-Line|
|19||NYG||NONE||O-line, Cornerback and Linebacker|
|20||CHI||NONE||O-Line and Linebacker|
|21||CIN||NONE||Safety, Linebacker, HB and DE|
|22||STL||LIKELY||O-Line, Safety, WR is possible – Claimed Titus Young|
|23||MIN||PRESSING NEED||Percy Harvin will be traded – WR is a pressing need|
|24||IND||NONE||O-Line, Corner and D-Line|
|25||SEA||POSSIBLE||Pass Rusher and WR – Will draft best player available|
|26||GB||UNLIKELY||D-Line, HB, Center, WR, TE|
|27||HOU||LIKELY||#2 WR needed with Andre Johnson|
|28||DEN||NONE||D-Line, Linebacker and Secondary|
|29||NE||PRESSING NEED||Wes Welker is UFA and Brandon Lloyd maybe cut|
|30||ATL||NONE||Pass Rusher, HB, O-Line and TE|
|31||SF||POSSIBLE||FS and WR – Crabtree, AJ Jenkins, Manningham on roster|
|32||BAL||UNLIKELY||Linebacker, FS and WR – Anquan Boldin may be cut|
|33||JAC||NONE||Pass Rusher and Cornerback|
|34||KAN||PRESSING NEED||Dwayne Bowe UFA – WR is Likely at #34|
|35||PHI||NONE||D-Line, O-Line and Cornerback|
|36||DET||UNLIKELY||Pass Rusher, Cornerback and WR – Titus Young cut|
|37||CIN||NONE||Safety, Linebacker, HB and DE|
|38||ARZ||NONE||O-Line and QB needed|
|39||NYJ||NONE||Pass Rusher, O-Line, HB and QB|
|40||TEN||NONE||O-Line and Secondary|
|41||BUF||LIKELY||QB needed – WR is possible if QB is not found|
|42||MIA||PRESSING NEED||WR, OT, CB, DE, FS|
From the table above we see those nine (9) teams; Buffalo, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Seattle, Houston, New England, San Francisco and Kansas all could potentially have needs at wide-receiver early in the draft. With Buffalo, St. Louis and Kansas posing a greater chance because they all have two picks before the Dolphins at pick #42. But out of those nine (9) teams we have to assume that some of them will fill their needs at WR in free agency with Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Greg Jennings and Wes Welker. And some of those teams may fill those needs via trades with a player such as Percy Harvin. Therefore, net-net out of those nine (9) teams only about 5 teams may still have a need for drafting a wide-receiver before the Dolphins select at pick #42.
So the question is: How deep is our draft board at wide-receiver? Is it more than 5 or less than 5? Are there 10 players we like at wide-receiver? If the board is deep at receiver, then should we not wait to select receiver at #42 and fill other needs at CB or DE?
Do all play-makers come from round 1? Examine the Super-Bowl Champions the Baltimore Ravens, all of their offensive play-makers except for QB Joe Flacco were drafted outside of round 1. Anquan Boldin and Jacoby Jones being acquired via trade and free agency were originally drafted in rounds 2 and 3 respectively. Baltimore’s 1st round selections in the last couple of years were spent on CB, OT, QB, G and DT. The same can be said of two of the most prolific offenses in the league, the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots. Both organizations have been able to consistently find play-makers on offense in the later rounds or via free agency. Employing a philosophy of drafting core low-risk players along their O-Line, D-line and players with pass rushing expertise in the 1st round.
|Baltimore’s Super-Bowl Offensive Play-Makers|
Is the 5th ranked WR Justin Hunter not a play-maker with his 2012 season of 73rec, 1083yds, 9tds? What about the 11th ranked Da’Rick Rogers is he not a play-maker 67rec, 1040yds, 9tds? The interesting thing about Justin and Da’Rick is that they both started ahead of Cordarrelle Patterson at Tennessee. Da’Rick Rogers is an interesting case, he was a national 4-star recruit out of HS and was considered the most refined of the three. He lived up to his billing and was very productive until he got suspended for Marijuana use and transferred to Tennessee Tech.
What about Baylor’s Terrance Williams he led the nation in receiving yards and in two seasons he amassed 156 rec, 2789yds, 23tds is he not a play-maker? Clemson’s Junior receiver DeAndre Hopkins has produced from the first day he set foot on campus, and torched LSU for 191yds and 2 scores capping off a remarkable year versus top defenses in the SEC with 82rec, 1405yds, 18tds is he not a play-maker?
Is Quinton Patton’s performance versus Texas A&M not enough to be consider a play-maker 21rec, 233yds, 4tds? Over two seasons’ he amassed 183rec, 2534yds, 24tds is that enough? How about his superb performance at the Senior Bowl is that enough yet?
Is it that Cordarrelle’s and Keenan’s talent levels are so far ahead of the wide-receiving class that they absolutely must be selected at pick #12? Are they the next Julio Jones and AJ Green? If they are, and let’s be honest, if the sentiment is that strong then you not only should draft them at pick #12, but there is a strong case you may actually have to trade up to get them! So which is it? Are they closer in talent to the rest of the wide-receiving class or are they closer to Julio Jones and AJ Green? If you are confident that they are closer to the caliber of Julio Jones then the answer is simple: Do everything possible to draft them!
But don’t just take Mel Kiper’s word on it, you got to have a look for yourselves and decide. (Top 150 – WRs by Brian Catanzaro)
The irony of it all is that both sought after free agents Greg Jennings and Mike Wallace were 2nd and 3rd round picks respectively.
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