If you haven’t heard already, the Indianapolis Colts are expected to release future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning later today.  Manning immediately becomes a free agent capable of signing with any team.  Miami will surely make a play for Manning but they won’t be alone.  Where will Manning land?

Manning stated he would take an incentive laden contract from his next team, but the fact is the bidding for his services will likely erase the possibility of landing him without also paying him a large contract.  The question becomes:

What is more important to Manning:  money or his best shot at a championship?

Manning is already extremely wealthy and doesn’t need the money.  That however didn’t stop him from signing a contract last year that paid him a $26 million dollar bonus despite the fact that he was having serious health problems and included the now famous $28 million dollar roster bonus due tomorrow.  $54 million plus his base pay for 2011…

Manning certainly doesn’t seem like he’s giving out any discounts for his services, especially when he was further from 100% than he is today.  So maybe Manning takes the highest bidder that offers some chance at a championship – maybe not the best chance, but a chance none the less.  Manning after all makes a team better all by himself as witnessed by the Colts collapse without him this past season.

Alternatively Manning might realize this is his last stop and his drive to succeed might outweigh any desire to maximize his financial portfolio.  Having a winning record or making the playoffs are meaningless if this is the motivation – the only prize would be winning the Super Bowl if this is Manning’s motivation.

Being rejected by the Colts must wound his pride and motivate him to show them and the rest of the world he’s still great.  Manning has always been a driven competitor and relentless worker – it’s part of what has made him great.  Adding an underdog mentality to Manning makes him dangerous.  It’s entirely possible Manning is willing to take less money to have the best chance at padding something other than his pocketbook: his trophy case.

Legacy should be stronger than money at this point.  While Manning is already considered one of the greatest QBs of all time, but adding to that legacy and doing something no other QB has done – win a Super Bowl after switching teams as a 36+ year old – could be a greater motivation to Manning.

Is Miami really the team to offer him the best chance at a championship, especially when we share the division with the routinely dominant Patriots and their own future Hall of Fame QB?

Seattle is rumored to be offering Peyton the chance to play his offense and to sign Reggie Wayne. That could offer some appeal.

Meanwhile a dark horse like Houston might view Manning as the missing piece for a championship puzzle.  The Texans can’t offer the same time of money as other teams, but that’s a weak division ripe for the taking, they have a team that is primed to make a run at the Super Bowl, and Manning would get to play the Colts twice a year and make them regret cutting him.

Lastly, I think Manning will be interviewing teams more than they will be interviewing him.  Ross may want Manning badly and may be willing to open the checkbook, but when Manning meets with Dolphins Head Coach Joe Philbin and Offensive Coordinator Mike Sherman will he hear what he wants to hear?  Will Philbin tell Manning that the Dolphins will run “Manning’s offense”, or will Philbin tell Manning that he will need to learn Philbin’s “West Coast Offense”?  As a new coach Philbin isn’t desperate to win now – like Mike Shanahan or Pete Carroll are.

Frankly, when the dust settles I don’t expect Manning to be a Dolphin.  Truthfully, that is probably better for the team in the long run.

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