• RB Moreno Injured RB Moreno Injured Expected to be out at least a month. Fins resign RB Daniel Thomas
  • Fins rout Pats in 2nd half 33-20 Fins rout Pats in 2nd half 33-20 Miami scored 23 unanswered points in the 2nd half to beat Pats
  • Fins finish preseason with a win Fins finish preseason with a win The Fins scored two TDs in the 4th quarter to beat the Rams 14-13
  • Marino to join front office Marino to join front office Miami has hired Marino as a special adviser to Dolphins owner Stephen Ross and CEO Tom Garfinkel

     

Season Projections: Part 2 (Lamar Miller)

220px Lamar Miller cropped Season Projections:  Part 2 (Lamar Miller)

RB Lamar Miller is expected to carry the load this season

Welcome back to the predictions series for the 2013 Miami Dolphins. At the time of this writing, it is the night before the Hall of Fame game against the Dallas Cowboys. In the first installment, I broke down the stats for Ryan Tannehill’s 2012 campaign and projected out, based partially on statistical analysis and partly some projective analysis, what the fans can expect to see out of Tannehill in 2013.

For THIS article, I will be breaking down what I believe Lamar Miller will be able to achieve in 2013. The projections for Miller were a little harder than Tannehill because Miller only saw limited action in 2012. For those that need reminding, here are Lamar Miller’s stats for 2012:

51 carries ____250 yards_____4.9 avg/carry____1 TD
6 receptions___ 45 yards_____7.5 avg/rec______0 TD

Projecting to 2013, I would LOVE to say that Lamar Miller will average 4.9 yards/carry in 2013 but consider that only Adrian Peterson (6.0), CJ Spiller (6.0), Jamal Charles (5.3) and Marshawn Lynch (5.0) averaged 4.9 yards/carry as astartingrunningback.Whenlookingfora better indicator of what Miller is realistically capable of, I went back to last year’s feature back, Reggie Bush, who averaged 4.3 yards/carry. However, I am taking into account the loss of Jake Long and having Jonathan Martin at LT. During the four games that Martin moved over to LT, Reggie Bush averaged 4.07 yards/carry. Therefore, taking all factors into account, I am placing Lamar Miller at 4.1 Yards/Carry.When figuring out how many carries Miller will get in 2013 there are a few variables to consider. (1) How many carries does Miami give to their primary back, (2) With Miami’s new weapons, how will that affect the run/pass percentage? and (3) How often will Miami be in position to ‘run the clock out’ at the end of games this season?

    Question# 1

Last year, Miami averaged 27.5 carries/game (440 carries/16 games). Reggie Bush was the featured back and he received 59.4% of the RB carries last year (227 Carries out of 382 carries given to RB/FB)

Given the math, 27.5 carries/game divided by .594 equals 16.34 carries/game.

    Question# 2

In 2012, Miami ran the ball 440 times and passed the ball 504 times. That comes out to a run/pass ratio of 47%/53%. I believe that Miami will run the ball more in 2013 to try and protect/hide Jonathan Martin. It’s early in camp but Martin appears unprepared to be a reliable pass blocker on a regular basis 1-on-1 and Philbin will be less apt to drop Tannehill back the 31.5 times/game that he did last year. Therefore, I see Miami’s run/pass ratio being closer to 50%/50% if Philbin has his way.

    Question# 3

Unless Miami’s passing game and defense are stellar this year, Miami will be in quite a few tight ballgames and I don’t see Miami being in position during too many games to run the clock out in the 4th quarter.

Taking all of this into account, I believe Miller gets around 18 carries/game.

So, if you project the avg carries/game and yards/carry, Lamar Miller’s stats will be:

288 Carries____1180 yards____4.1 yds/carry___9 TDs*

*The TD total is based off of Miller having more ‘big play potential’ and Miami having more diversity in the red zone. A cross referenced the number with backs from 2012 and 9 TDs would put Lamar Miller around 10th in the league.

As usual, feel free to discuss….

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