• CB Will Davis out for season CB Will Davis out for season Miami placed CB Will Davis on the IR, ending his season
  • Fins stay in playoff hunt Fins stay in playoff hunt Miami upends the Bills, 22-9, keep playoff hopes alive.
  • Fins dominate Chargers Fins dominate Chargers QB Tannehill threw 3 TDs as the Fins rout the Chargers 37-0
  • Fins beat Jags, 27-13 Fins beat Jags, 27-13 It wasn't pretty, but Miami put down the Jaguars, 27-13

     

Season Projections: Part ONE (Tannehill)

tannehill2 150x150 Season Projections:  Part ONE (Tannehill)

Does Tannehill take the next step this year?

With training camp/preseason right around the corner, I thought it would be interesting to post projections for some of the more prominent Dolphins players. This first installment will begin with, arguably, the most important member of this year’s team. The Dolphins will only go as far as Ryan Tannehill will take them.

Before I post what I predict Tannehill’s stats will be for 2013, let’s take a quick look back at his 2012 numbers.

ATT COMP COMP% YARDS TDs INTs QBR
OVERALL 282 484 58.3% 3294 12 13 76.1

RED ZONE 21 44 47.7% 153 8 1 86.5

INSIDE OWN 50 18629962.2% 2239 1 11 70.9

4TH QTR & OT 81 147 55.1% 1059 6 4 80.3

LAST 2 MIN/HALF 18 38 47.4% 251 1 4 38.3

With what most believe were substandard weapons at WR/TE, AND that most analysts believed Tannehill wasn’t even supposed to start in 2012, Tannehill put up pedestrian overall numbers.

*His completion% was 17th out of 23 QB’s that threw the ball more than 480 times.
*Only Tannehill (12), Sanchez (13) and Weeden(14) put upfewerthan18TDshaving attempted more than 400 throws.*In fact, to find a starting QB that put up fewer than Tannehill’s 12 TDs, you have to go down the list to Jake Locker who attempted 314 passes (170 fewer than Tannehill).As for his ‘red zone’ numbers, on the surface, it looks like Tannehill put up GREAT numbers. His 8 to 1 TD/INT ratio and 86.5 QBR are what you like to see in that area of the field. However, upon closer inspection you notice his COMP% of 47.7 and that his ‘average completion’ was a paltry 3.5yds. That means that while Tannehill only gave the ball away once in the red zone (twice if you remember the terrible pass against Seattle that was called back by a penalty) Tannehill also took very few risks in that part of the field; many times settling for a FG instead of going for the TD.

Next, you look at his numbers on his OWN SIDE of the 50. His completion percentage is stellar but the ONE TD vs. 11 INTs kinda catches your eye. (When I originally researched this article, I wasn’t looking for these stats but they just jumped out at me.)

Finally, his 4th quarter and overtime stats were fairly average for an NFL starter but his stats inside the last 2:00 of the half were HORRIBLE! A 1:4 TD/INT ratio and a QBR of 38.3. (For reference, Sanchez had the same exact COMP%, a 1:2 TD/INT ratio and a QBR of 53.0)

—————————————————————

NOW, for the good news!

Miami has gotten Tannehill two new WRs (including a legitimate deep threat) and a ‘seam threat’ at TE! This new pieces, along with a year of NFL experience, leads most to believe that Tannehill’s numbers will improve in 2013. Based on what I have seen, I would have to agree. The following are my projections for Tannehil’s 2013 season; along with an explanation of how I came to these numbers.

2013
COMP ATT COMP% YARDS TDs INTs QBR
OVERALL 300 515 58.2% 3664 18 12 82.2

Tannehill threw, on average, 32 times/game for the 15 games he played. (I am not counting the game that Tannehill was knocked out on the first drive.) I took that same average and extended it to 16 games, instead of increasing it, because Philbin still believes in running the ball. I also believe the passing game will yield better results, therefore, there will be fewer plays per drive.

I decided to keep Tannehill’s COMP% the same because, while I believe he will find more open receivers, I also believe that he will try more deep balls which have a lower chance for completion.

As for the number of yards, I based Tannehill’s yardage numbers off of Andy Dalton’s numbers from 2012 (229/game). They both have strong armed QBs, a fast/dynamic WR and Dalton was in his 2nd year as QB last year.

A QBR of 82.2 would put him in Sam Bradford territory and was good for 18th out of 32 starting QBs last year.

So…..what do you guys think?

Before the season begins, would you sign up for these numbers?
If you think I am off, feel free to discuss where you think I am wrong.

****All Stats obtained from NFL.com*******************

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Matthew Stevens

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