Why Brian Hartline is Worth 3.5million per year!

Published February 14, 2013 | By Max Lukas

Brian Hartline was a bright spot on the Dolphins much maligned receiving core in 2012, and he became the favorite target of rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

In a contract year as the #1 receiver, Hartline posted career best numbers with 74 receptions, 1083 yards, and one touchdown.

Hartline, undoubtedly was the best receiver the Dolphins had on its roster, but was it that difficult for him to stand-out given the group of receivers around him?

Even the dullest of metals will shine amongst rubble right! Before I am crucified, let me share my thoughts. Let’s take an in-depth look at Brian Hartline.

Player	Age	Weight	Height	40T
Brian Hartline	26	199	6-2	4.52

College Career

Brian Hartline was selected in the 4^th round of the 2009 draft by the Miami Dolphins. He played his college career at Ohio State University where he was part of the 2008 BCS National Championship Team that lost to LSU. Hartline was listed as the #2 WR behind Brian Robiskie. Hartline was not a dominant college player, but proved too be an average one, his production in college left much to be desired and was average at best. It’s fair to mention that OSU had a fairly run heavy scheme with Terrell Pryor and Beanie Wells. But, in Hartline’s 3 seasons with OSU his best ever single season came in 2007 where we gained 693 yards for 6TDs. Over 3 season’s he scored a total of 12TDs. Hartline has never proven to be a receiver that can put points on the board.
<table style=”width: 365px” border=”0″ cellspacing=”0″ cellpadding=”0″>
YEAR TEAM REC YDS AVG LNG TD 2006 OSU 17 256 15.1 32 2 2007 OSU 52 694 13.3 65 6 2008 OSU 21 479 22.8 56 4

Hartline entered the 2009 NFL draft listed at 6’2” 195lbs and ran 4.52 40 yard dash.

Dolphins Career – 3 Season’s Prior to 2012

Hartline has been a starter since his rookie year, and he has been predominantly used in the role of the #2 and #3 receiver prior to the 2012 season. He has been a satisfactory receiver on a team with generally poor Quarterback play over his first 3 years, and he has turned out to be decent value for a 4^th round draft selection. However, his production at the Pro level is consistent with his college career, while somewhat reliable, it has never been great. And there continued to be a trend of him not being able to find the End-Zone. Hartline managed to catch an uninspiring 56% of the passes targeted to him over his first 3 seasons.

SEASON	TEAM	GP	REC	TGTS	YDS	TD	REC/TGT Ratio
2009	MIA	16	31	56	506	3	55%
2010	MIA	12	43	73	615	1	59%
2011	MIA	16	35	67	549	1	52%
3yr Avg.</strong>	MIA	15	36	65	557	2	56%

Dolphins Career – 2012 Breakout

Things got off to a rough start for Hartline in 2012. The young receiver who was heading into a contract year had an arduous off-season where he missed OTAs and much of the pre-season with a calf-injury and an emergency appendectomy which ravaged his body. It was not a routine procedure either; it was more of a “through the valley of the shadow of death” sort of appendectomy! But Hartline persevered and got himself ready for the start of the season. This is the kind of guy I want to root for, but alas I am a fan of the Dolphins first and Hartline after, so that makes it a little easier to do this analysis.

With the trade of the mercurial Brandon Marshall, the epic flame-out of Chad Johnson, and the inability of any other receiver on the roster to rise to the challenge Hartline won the #1 role by default. Things were finally starting to look up for the young receiver.

Through the first 4 games in 2012 Hartline led the league in receiving yards, thanks to a 12 reception, 253yard performance away to the Arizona Cardinals in week 4. But this turned out to be the pinnacle of his season, as Hartline only managed to break the 100 yard receiving mark once after this.

When it was all said and done, Hartline finished with career best numbers of 74 receptions, 1083 yards and 1 touchdown. But again, only catching 58% of the passes targeted to him, while continuing to show a disturbing inability to score touchdowns even as a #1.

SEASON	TEAM	GP	REC	TGTS	YDS	TD	REC/TGT Ratio
2012	MIA	16	74	128	1083	1	58%

Hartline as a Game Changing Play-maker

Hartline did have a fairly decent season where he was the #1 target, and yes he did have 1083yards, and yes he did have an amazing performance against the Arizona Cardinals, but was Hartline effective and efficient in that role through-out the season?

The following figures were calculated using WR stats only. TEs and HBs stats were not included.The Statistics used, were taken from only those WRs who had 35 plus receptions for the 2012 regular season. 73 receivers met the threshold of 35+ receptions in 2012.

Of the 73 wide receivers with more than 35 receptions in 2012, 45 of them had a higher “catch per target” ratio than Hartline. Therefore roughly 62% of receivers were better than Hartline at making a play on the ball and coming down with the catch when being targeted.

Also surprisingly, the average of all 73 receivers “catch-to-target ratios” was higher than Hartline’s 58%. And amongst the top 45 receivers, this disparity increased to 65% versus Hartline’s 58%. In both cases, Hartline ended up having inferior numbers from a “catch-to-target ratio” perspective.

From a “yards per catch” perspective, there were 24 receivers that had a higher “yards per catch” average than Hartline. However, Hartline did show better “yards per catch” statistics of 14.6 yards versus the 13.7 yards average for all 73 receivers evaluated. So there is a minor consideration that Hartline’s was running slightly deeper routes by 1 yard as compared to 67% of the receiver’s used in this analysis.

This table shows where Hartline ranked in each category out the 73 WRs that had +35 receptions in 2012
HARTLINE	REC	TGT	YDS	AVG	TD	20+	YAC	REC/TGT	YAC/REC	YDS/TGT
RANKS	17	19	16	25	67	23	42	46	58	30

The table above is very indicative of Hartline’s lack of play-making ability.

Although Hartline ranked 19^th in total targets in 2012, he did not outperform those targets in any significant way across all metrics.

For Hartline to be ranked the 19^th most targeted receiver in 2012, how does he finish as the 67^th ranked player for touchdowns! That’s a difficult thing to achieve.

Further damaging to Hartline’s outlook is the fact that he finished as the 42^nd ranked player for total yards after catch (YAC) even though he was the 17^th ranked receiver for receptions. It can’t get much worse than that right?

Well yes it could, because Hartline finished as the 58^th ranked receiver for yards after the catch per reception made. That meant once Hartline did catch the ball, he did next to nothing with it over the course of the season.

Except for that performance versus the Arizona Cardinals, Hartline is a very average receiver. Hartline needs to have a high number of targets to make very little happen with the football. The problem for him is that he is not a #1WR, so I expect him to fade back into his previous years production once the Dolphins acquire a viable #1. Is this the play-maker that we desperately need to resign at 6 million per year? I say definitively NO.

Let me repeat that: Hartline is an average receiver, and needs to have a high number of targets to make very little happen with the football.

Hartline – The Magician

Excluding the Cardinals game, Hartline had a knack for disappearing versus the better pass defenses in the league. As I crunched the numbers, just when I thought the evidence couldn’t be more compelling against Hartline, it got even worse.

We can see from the table below that versus the better pass defenses the Dolphins faced in 2012, Hartline all but disappeared, apart from his performance against the Arizona Cardinals. In the 9 games versus defenses that finished the season in the TOP 16 versus the pass, Hartline averaged just 61 yards per game. And that’s including his 253 yard outburst versus the Cardinals. If we were to take that game away, his performance stats would be downright abysmal, averaging just 37.9 yards per game. Is this the play-maker that’s worth 6 million per year!

Hartline’s Performance versus the NFL’s Top 16 Pass Defenses
WEEK	OPPONENTS	Pass Def Rank	REC	TGTS	YDS	TDs
1	Houston	16	3	8	50	0
3	New York	2	1	9	41	0
4	Arizona	5	12	18	253	1
5	Cincinnati	7	4	5	59	0
8	New York	2	4	6	41	0
11	Buffalo	10	4	7	49	0
12	Seattle	6	2	5	17	0
14	San Fran	4	2	6	34	0
16	Buffalo	10	2	7	12	0
Total			34	71	556	1

See below: Even with the big game against the Arizona Cardinals, Hartline’s 2012 stats versus the 9 top ranked defenses vs the pass was absolutely dreadful.

HARTLINE VS TOP PASS DEFs	AVG REC	AVG TGTS	AVG YDS	AVG TDs
HARTLINE VS TOP PASS DEFs	3.8	7.9	61.8	0.11

We can see again below: That if the Arizona Cardinals is left out of the calculations Hartline’s stats goes from dreadful to atrocious.

HARTLINE VS TOP PASS DEFs EXCLUDING ARZ	AVG REC	AVG TGTS	AVG YDS	AVG TDs
	2.8	6.6	37.9	0.0

Hartline vs Free Agents from 2012

Hartline or his agent thinks he is in the Laurent Robinson’s and Robert Meacham’s contract range.

Well let’s put up their contract year numbers from 2011 and compare them to Hartline’s 2012 numbers.

Hartline vs Robinson – Robinson got a 5yr deal paying 6.5million per year
YEAR	PLAYER	REC	TGT	YDS	AVG	TD	YAC	REC/TGT	YAC/REC	YDS/TGT
2012	Brian Hartline	74	128	1,083	14.6	1	240	58%	3.24	8.5
2011	Laurent Robinson	54	81	858	15.9	11	264	67%	4.89	10.6

Hartline vs Meacham – Meacham got a 4yr deal paying 6.5million per year.
YEAR	PLAYER	REC	TGT	YDS	AVG	TD	YAC	REC/TGT	YAC/REC	YDS/TGT
2012	Brian Hartline	74	128	1,083	14.6	1	240	58%	3.24	8.5
2011	Robert Meachem	40	61	620	15.5	6	103	66%	2.58	10.2

As you can see from the above tables both Robinson and Meacham had less total targets than Hartline and as a result less total yardage. However, both players produced more yards per catch and scored more touchdowns even though they were targeted less. Also observe the REC/TGT (catches-to-targets ratio) column; both players caught approx. 9% more balls that were thrown to them. And both players had more “yards per targeted” pass. Which means both Robinson and Meacham did lot more with fewer opportunities and fewer balls thrown their way.

How Hartline compared to the Best “Catch per Target Ratio” Receivers in 2012

The table below shows the success rate of receivers making a play on the ball when they were targeted. Hartline ranked poorly, he was 46 out of 73 receivers. Guys like Brandon Stokley, Jason Avant, Leonard Hankerson, Andrew Hawkins, Dexter McCluster, Domenik Hixon and Brandon Gibson out-performed him.

Table compares Hartline to the best reception-per-target receivers of 2013
RANK	PLAYER	REC/TGT	REC	TGT	YDS	AVG	TD	YAC	YAC/REC	YDS/TGT
1	Brandon Stokley	78%	45	58	544	12.1	5	131	2.91	9.4
2	Randall Cobb	77%	80	104	954	11.9	8	462	5.78	9.2
3	M Manningham	74%	42	57	449	10.7	1	183	4.36	7.9
4	Percy Harvin	73%	62	85	677	10.9	3	531	8.56	8.0
5	Jason Avant	70%	53	76	648	12.2	0	166	3.13	8.5
6	Eric Decker	69%	85	123	1,064	12.5	13	267	3.14	8.7
7	Andre Johnson	68%	112	164	1,598	14.3	4	472	4.21	9.7
8	Wes Welker	68%	118	174	1,354	11.5	6	619	5.25	7.8
9	Santana Moss	67%	41	61	573	14	8	225	5.49	9.4
10	Jordy Nelson	67%	49	73	745	15.2	7	208	4.24	10.2
11	Michael Crabtree	67%	85	127	1,105	13	9	465	5.47	8.7
12	Demaryius Thomas	67%	94	141	1,434	15.3	10	512	5.45	10.2
13	Dez Bryant	67%	92	138	1,382	15	12	455	4.95	10.0
14	Malcom Floyd	67%	56	84	814	14.5	5	122	2.18	9.7
15	Leonard Hankerson	67%	38	57	543	14.3	3	148	3.89	9.5
16	Dexter McCluster	67%	52	78	452	8.7	1	203	3.90	5.8
17	Golden Tate	66%	45	68	688	15.3	7	221	4.91	10.1
18	Domenik Hixon	66%	39	59	567	14.5	2	113	2.90	9.6
19	Josh Morgan	66%	48	73	510	10.6	2	234	4.88	7.0
20	Pierre Garcon	66%	44	67	633	14.4	4	298	6.77	9.4
21	James Jones	65%	64	98	784	12.3	14	151	2.36	8.0
22	Harry Douglas	64%	38	59	396	10.4	1	146	3.84	6.7
23	Roddy White	64%	92	143	1,351	14.7	7	338	3.67	9.4
24	Andrew Hawkins	64%	51	80	533	10.5	4	336	6.59	6.7
25	Marques Colston	63%	83	132	1,154	13.9	10	296	3.57	8.7
26	Antonio Brown	63%	66	105	787	11.9	5	319	4.83	7.5
27	Sidney Rice	63%	50	80	748	15	7	164	3.28	9.4
28	Danny Amendola	62%	63	101	666	10.6	3	253	4.02	6.6
29	Brandon Gibson	62%	51	82	691	13.5	5	108	2.12	8.4
30	Lance Moore	62%	65	105	1,041	16	6	130	2.00	9.9
46	Brian Hartline	58%	74	128	1,083	14.6	1	240	3.24	8.5

How Hartline stacked up against Receivers with the Best “YAC per Reception” in 2012

Table shows the guys who gained the most amount of yardage per reception after the catch. These are the guys that made the most out of every ball they caught. These guys are play-makers with the ball in their hands. Hartline ranked a disconcerting 58 out 73 in this category.

Table compares Hartline to the best yards after catch per reception receivers of 2013
RANK	PLAYER	YAC/REC	REC	TGT	YDS	AVG	TD	YAC	REC/TGT	YDS/TGT
1	Percy Harvin	8.56	62	85	677	10.9	3	531	73%	8.0
2	DnarioAlexander	7.19	37	62	658	17.8	7	266	60%	10.6
3	Pierre Garcon	6.77	44	67	633	14.4	4	298	66%	9.4
4	Andrew Hawkins	6.59	51	80	533	10.5	4	336	64%	6.7
5	Brandon LaFell	6.57	44	76	677	15.4	4	289	58%	8.9
6	Cecil Shorts	6.35	55	106	979	17.8	7	349	52%	9.2
7	T.Y. Hilton	6.32	50	91	861	17.2	7	316	55%	9.5
8	Josh Gordon	6.08	50	96	805	16.1	5	304	52%	8.4
9	Chris Givens	6.02	42	81	698	16.6	3	253	52%	8.6
10	Darrius Hey-Bey	5.88	41	80	606	14.8	5	241	51%	7.6
11	Randall Cobb	5.78	80	104	954	11.9	8	462	77%	9.2
12	Julio Jones	5.70	79	129	1,198	15.2	10	450	61%	9.3
13	Santana Moss	5.49	41	61	573	14	8	225	67%	9.4
14	Michael Crabtree	5.47	85	127	1,105	13	9	465	67%	8.7
15	Demaryius Thomas	5.45	94	141	1,434	15.3	10	512	67%	10.2
16	DeSean Jackson	5.42	45	85	700	15.6	2	244	53%	8.2
17	Wes Welker	5.25	118	174	1,354	11.5	6	619	68%	7.8
18	Nate Washington	5.20	46	89	746	16.2	4	239	52%	8.4
19	Dez Bryant	4.95	92	138	1,382	15	12	455	67%	10.0
20	Golden Tate	4.91	45	68	688	15.3	7	221	66%	10.1
21	Josh Morgan	4.88	48	73	510	10.6	2	234	66%	7.0
22	Torrey Smith	4.86	49	110	855	17.4	8	238	45%	7.8
23	Antonio Brown	4.83	66	105	787	11.9	5	319	63%	7.5
24	Jeremy Kerley	4.73	56	96	827	14.8	2	265	58%	8.6
25	Kendall Wright	4.70	64	104	626	9.8	4	301	62%	6.0
26	Miles Austin	4.62	66	118	943	14.3	6	305	56%	8.0
27	Donald Jones	4.59	41	67	443	10.8	4	188	61%	6.6
28	Emm. Sanders	4.43	44	74	626	14.2	1	195	59%	8.5
29	Davone Bess	4.38	61	104	778	12.8	1	267	59%	7.5
30	M Manningham	4.36	42	57	449	10.7	1	183	74%	7.9
31	Mike Wallace	4.31	64	119	836	13.1	8	276	54%	7.0
58	Brian Hartline	3.24	74	128	1083	14.6	1	240	58%	8.5

Conclusion

Brian Hartline has been an average receiver who has never shown the ability to score touchdowns at both the college and pro level. He is a receiver that requires a lot of targets to make things happen. He was in a fortunate situation in 2012 where he became the go-to option in Miami on a team with a weak receiving core. There are several receivers in the NFL and in the draft that could have done more with the number of targets Hartline saw from rookie Quarterback Ryan Tannehill. I do believe Hartline belongs in the NFL. He definitely has a role to play in the league, but that role is not worth 6 million per year. Far from it!

If Brian Hartline was a free agent from another team, would you want your front office to pursue him at 6 million per year? Hartline’s value is closer to what Mario Manningham got from the 49ers and what the San Diego Chargers gave Malcom Floyd. Brian Hartline is at best a 3.5 million per year receiver.

Max Lukas

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Why Brian Hartline is Worth 3.5million per year!, 4.3 out of 5 based on 9 ratings

Posted in Max Lukas | Tagged Brian Hartline, free agency, Jeff Ireland, UFA

8 Responses to Why Brian Hartline is Worth 3.5million per year!

gary skelton on February 14, 2013 at 18:09

who says we have to pay him 6 mil.
just pay him 4.5 mil and welcome your new chain mover.

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Jayrock20 on February 14, 2013 at 12:59

great write up BTW

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ryan on February 14, 2013 at 12:18

Hey I have an Idea, lets just bring in 5 new recievers and see how that works. That should do wonders for a second year QB…..

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- Jayrock20 on February 14, 2013 at 13:01
  
  considering the fact that he only threw to 2 recievers this year i dont think it can get any worse than that
  
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ryan on February 14, 2013 at 12:15

I really think this is overkill. I mean i didnt even want to continue reading. Look he is a good reciever and should of had atleast 4-5 more td’s if t hill had hit him in stride. Watch the highlights. He was a guy other teams tride to stop and he still was able to get open. I dont know why people just want to give our talent away. T hill likes him and they are on the same page. That only took one season. That means soo much in the NFL. Knowing what way a reciever will break or is breaks off on a blitz. He will only continue to get better and I would love to see him as a dolphin for a long time as a number 2 wide out. With a legit number one he will be open all the time especially working on a number 2 cb. You have to be honest and look at some of the recievers payton manning is making stars this year. They have one legit number 1 and a bunch of guys without the talent hartline has. Just put it to rest. He will be a dolphin next year and years to come especially if T hill has anything to say about it….

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- Jackson on February 15, 2013 at 06:15
  
  Thank you Ryan, you could not be more correct. Hartline is a good, reliable player that was willing to get crushed for his QB–he will be free to roam once Miami lands a true #1. We need to unload the borderline guys, not the good ones.
  
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BuckeyeFinFan on February 14, 2013 at 11:04

Nice try with lots of stats but this also demonstrates the dangers of stats. You need to see the player behind the stats. If this weren’t a team sport then stats would be an accurate measure of performance. We have to remember that Tannehill just plain old missed him on a lot of throws. If Tannehill hits him on 3 or 4 of those long balls we’d have a couple more TDs etc.. I’m not knocking Tannehill for a rookie with a first year head coach and the team learning a whole new offense he did great. This is also the first time Hartline was in a true passing offense. I think we finally saw what he is capable of. I would point out that 10 of the top 31 receivers have less than 58% Rec. to Targets including Mike Wallace who will be demanding around 10 Mil. I think Hartline is easily worth 5 Mil maybe even as much as 6 Mil. The fact is he was productive when we needed him to be and was a reliable target. If more catchable balls came his way his percentage would be higher. He does not have a lot of drops which is one stat that seems to be missing from your info. There’s a lot more to evaluating talent than stats. If we let Hartline go he could end up becoming the next Wes Welker. And we look stupid once again for trading him. Remember he didn’t blossom overnight either.

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- Jayrock20 on February 14, 2013 at 11:26
  
  If you watch Hartline play these stats back that up. He is not breaking tackles or outrunning anyone for extra yardage let alone TDs. And Hartline is not the only receiver on that list that had a QB miss him on a few plays. Every receiver gets missed. And if he is looking for 6 mil the Patriots are definitely not going to pay him that. And Mike Wallace has proven to be a big time playmaker you would be a fool to compare him to Hartline.
  
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